Sunday, December 31, 2006

Big Loss on Foreclosed Downtown Condo at Park Blvd West #1105

Park Boulevard West is a low rise condominium in the East Village. This unit has sustained a substantial loss and is owned by the bank that loaned the money for this unit to the last owner.

More details about this and thousands of other properties available at Foreclosure.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066101451)

List Price: $450,000

Cost: $535,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $112,000
Loss%: 20.93%

Purchase Date: 11/24/2004
Holding Period: 25 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 910

Purchase Details: view

Friday, December 29, 2006

2007 Predictions

I started this blog in April of this year and nearly 200 posts later we find ourselves in a real estate market that has made a significant change in direction. I had been predicting this in other forums and with friends and colleagues for awhile which makes the market move not a surprise for myself however given that this was a very unpopular prediction I feel somewhat vindicated.

At any rate I am going to diverge from my usual posts featuring price action on specific properties and market news to make some predictions for 2007.

1.) San Diego property will continue to decline in value with condos continuing to lead the movement down. This decrease will range from 5-25%.

2.) Downtown condos will depreciate another 10-25% in another slow and orderly decline similar to how 2006 played out. Quality will be key in terms of holding value.

3.) At least one more downtown condo project will go rental before completion. As noted on this blog the former Broadway Lofts condominiums has reverted to a rental project. A potential candidate for going the rental route is Solara Lofts which is an office building conversion project that should be finished by early summer, since sales haven't started yet it may be prudent for them to pull the development off of the market until prices stabilize.

4.) The massive number of new urban condos coming will continue to impact price declines in the attached sector of the market, however since many of the developers will decide to carry inventory for 3-6 months after project completion and since the natural tendency for construction projects to take longer than scheduled the inventory increase and price declines continue into 2008.

In summary the decline trend continues for 2007 with a bottom in the market pushed out past the coming year. A significant wildcard are interest rates which could drive a quicker decline if the one two punch of materially higher rates combined with adjustable mortgage resets combines to drive more foreclosure and short sale activity.

Have a great new year!

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Downtown Condo at Treo #600

Treo a high rise developed located in the Columbia District, while close to Little Italy it is often misrepresented as being located in the more popular Little Italy. This may change as the Navy Broadway complex revamps the neighborhood into a much nicer destination. The train is awfully loud as well and that is supposed to be fixed by CCDC at some point in the future.

This particular unit is listed below it's late summer 2005 price.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066090885)

List Price: $695,000
(Range priced $675,000 to $715,000)
Cost: $750,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $96,700
Loss%: 12.89%

Purchase Date: 09/07/2005
Holding Period: 15 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 3
Square Feet: 1337

Purchase Details: view

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Luxury Downtown Condo at Harbor Club #2304

Harbor Club is a twin tower development in the Marina District on the border with the Gaslamp Quarter. This project is often referenced as the one that was developed and ended up vacant with condos sold at auction during the last real estate market downturn.

This unit has recently endured a price cut which has generated a large loss.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066064731)

List Price: $1,399,000

Cost: $1,490,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $174,940
Loss%: 11.74%

Purchase Date: 12/22/2005
Holding Period: 12 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1572

Purchase Details: view

Monday, December 18, 2006

Downtown Condo at Cityfront Terrace #1705

Cityfront Terrace is a mid rise building located in the Marina District. This project is unique as it was developed during the prior real estate boom and ended up as rental project for a number of years as the condo market crash at the time made selling the building as condominiums unfeasible.

This particular unit is listed for sale below its prior price sales price from the summer of 2004. The MLS listing is offering an additional $4,500 for closing costs which is not factored into the loss calculation below.

The unit has endured the following price cuts:
Price Reduced: 08/11/06 -- $535,000 to $525,000
Price Reduced: 08/22/06 -- $525,000 to $500,000

Type: Listed on MLS(#066055232)

List Price: $507,500
(Range priced $500,000 to $515,000)
Cost: $532,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,950
Loss%: 10.33%

Purchase Date: 07/21/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 975

Purchase Details: view

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Bank Foreclosed Downtown Condo at Trellis #519

Trellis is located at the end of 5th Avenue in the Gaslamp.

This unit has changed hands twice with the second buyer going into foreclosure. This unit listed on foreclosure.com.

Based on the below list price activity it appears that bank actually tried to sell this unit for more than the last sales price but has quickly cut the price to below the prior transaction price.

Price Reduced: 11/06/06 -- $439,900 to $384,900
Price Reduced: 12/05/06 -- $384,900 to $374,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#061087982)

List Price: $374,900

Cost: $409,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $56,594
Loss%: 13.84%

Purchase Date: 08/26/2005
Holding Period: 16 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 678

Purchase Details: view

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Downtown Condo at The Mills #204

This two bedroom unit at this Mills is as pretty generic as they get, what's notable is that the price is less than the developer price in 2004. While the closing probably occurred in July the prices at The Mills were set a number of months before as this was a new building, designed as rentals and converted into condos before the building was completed. At this point downtown the Mills is likely to be the first newer project where all units in the project are worth less than the developer price so pretty much everyone has lost money there.

At this price the unit is very much still overpriced in my opinion as the rental value of the unit is no more than $2,000 per month.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066078671)

List Price: $500,000
(Range priced $480,000 to $520,000)
Cost: $524,287
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,287
Loss%: 10.35%

Purchase Date: 07/02/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1090

Purchase Details: view

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Large Loss on Luxury Downtown Condo at ParkLoft #301

Parkloft is a mid-rise building one block from Petco Park in the East Village.

This unit has changed hands twice and is getting close to the original developer pricing of $629,900 from March 2003 based on the sales history at sdlookup.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066095388)

List Price: $700,000

Cost: $800,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $142,000
Loss%: 17.75%

Purchase Date: 06/10/2004
Holding Period: 30 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Loft
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1696

Purchase Details: view

SDBJ: Irvine Brokerage Assembles Local Team to Auction Off Condos

From the San Diego Business Journal a very interesting and timely article about the thousands of vacant condos in San Diego.

I would advise not participating in the first several auctions if they occur as there is a lot of inventory out there and prices need to continue going down.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Housing market's reality check

Very timely article in today's Union Tribune about short sales. Readers of this blog will not be surprised at the specific examples discussed in the article. I think it's very important to note that these properties will be sold at a loss to the banks and mortgage lenders.

At some points in this debate and analysis over real estate prices in San Diego some observers and pundits noted that "people don't sell in down markets" - it's clear that people will and are selling at lower prices

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Downtown Condo at M2i #311

M2i is a loft project in the East Village and was built by CitiMark development.
The loss on the unit isn't the most interesting detail, while substantial, the most interesting fact on this property is that to my knowledge this the first loss at M2i which is a very new project to be completed.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066098734)

List Price: $495,000
(Range priced $485,000 to $505,000)
Cost: $512,769
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $47,469
Loss%: 9.26%

Purchase Date: 01/10/2006
Holding Period: 11 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 0
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1187

Purchase Details: view

Million+ Luxury Downtown Condo at The Grande #1305

The Grande is a twin tower luxury high rise project built by Bosa Development and is located in the Columbia District. This large unit is in the south tower which was the first tower completed.

Type: Listed on MLS(#061050873)

List Price: $1,050,000
(Range priced $1,000,000 to $1,100,000)
Cost: $1,150,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $163,000
Loss%: 14.17%

Purchase Date: 10/19/2004
Holding Period: 26 months and counting...

Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1625

Purchase Details: view

Friday, December 08, 2006

Tiny Condo, Huge Loss - Downtown Condo at The Mills #514

The Mills is located on Cortez Hill, it was designed and developed as rental apartments but was converted into condominiums almost at the exact high in the market.

I used to watch people queue up on Saturday mornings for the various sales phases. At this point every single property at this project is probably underwater relative to original developer cost. While the Mills is low grade housing the studios there like this property have the distinction of being the worst design of any condos built during the large development wave. This is all in my opinion of course but if you've seen these unit you'll probably agree.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066098986)

List Price: $239,000

Cost: $295,500
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $70,840
Loss%: 23.97%

Purchase Date: 08/19/2004
Holding Period: 28 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Studio
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 450

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at doma #111

Doma is a CityMark building on Kettner Boulevard in Little Italy.

This large luxury unit is listed as a corporate relocation on the MLS. This probably indicates that some or all of the loss is being taken by a large company rather than the individual that purchased the unit. This is a good example of how some property will be for sale regardless of market conditions.

List Price History:
Price Reduced: 08/23/06 -- $769,900 to $749,900
Price Reduced: 09/26/06 -- $749,900 to $699,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#061053971)

List Price: $699,000
Cost: $797,500
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $140,440
Loss%: 17.61%

Purchase Date: 09/22/2006
Holding Period: 3 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1754

Purchase Details: view

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Bank Foreclosure in Scripps Ranch - 11797 FANTASIA CT

Another typical family home in Scripps Ranch is now bank owned after going through the foreclosure process.

The sales history at Sdlookup.com shows the huge run up in pricing over the ten year span between 1996 and 2006. The obvious question is how much are we going to retrace values?

Search for this and hundreds of other foreclosures on www.foreclosure.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066097654)

List Price: $745,000

Cost: $788,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $87,700
Loss%: 11.13%

Purchase Date: 05/19/2006
Holding Period: 7 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 3
Square Feet: 2,395

Purchase Details: view

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Broadway Lofts: Apartments, then Condos, now Apartments Again

Those of you who follow the downtown market will be interested in knowing that the historic building on the corner of 5th and Broadway which was going to converted into apartments and then into condos is now back to being apartments again.

The project never had any dedicated parking which would probably be better as inexpensive rentals for students and service workers who live and work downtown or off the trolley line.

Broadwaylofts.com rental information

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Bank Foreclosure in Scripps Ranch - 11326 Village Ridge Rd

This typically family home in Scripps Ranch is now bank owned after going through the foreclosure process.

Search for this and hundreds of other foreclosures on Search for this and hundreds of other foreclosures on www.RealtyTrac.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066097465)

List Price: $660,000

Cost: $705,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $84,600
Loss%: 12.00%

Purchase Date: 11/30/2005
Holding Period: 13 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1880

Resale Details: view

Friday, December 01, 2006

Downtown Condo at Symphony Terrace #202

This nondescript one bedroom unit without a view is offered for sale for less than the current owner paid way back in March 2004.

Symphony Terrace is located on Cortez Hill right next to Copely Symphony Hall and is an area of downtown with a lot of new building activity including Cortez Blu, Vantage Pointe and Aria.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066070596)

List Price: $339,000
(Range priced $339,000 to $339,000)
Cost: $356,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $37,340
Loss%: 10.49%


Purchase Date: 03/11/2004
Holding Period: 33 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 673

Purchase Details: view

Single Family Home at Liberty Station - 2923 FARRAGUT RD, SD - Point Loma, CA 92106

This is the first property at Liberty Station to appear on this blog. Liberty Station is the former naval training center just west of Lindbergh Field. I'm sure the jets are loud there.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066063999)

List Price: $769,500
(Range priced $799,000 to $740,000)
Cost: $825,379
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $102,049
Loss%: 12.36%


Purchase Date: 01/24/2005
Holding Period: 23 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 3
Square Feet: 1931

Purchase Details: view