Rate of Condominium Conversions, Sales Continue Downward Spiral

The San Diego Business Journal reports on condominium conversions in San Diego. No major surprises here and I agree completely with the forecast for more problems.

San Diego Business Journal Online article

UTC/La Jolla Condo at Verano #2014

Verano is one of the many apartment conversion condominiums in the UTC area. There are still developer units available at Verano.

Type: Listed on MLS(#071011186)

List Price: $442,999
(Range priced $415,999 to $469,999)
Cost: $490,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $73,581
Loss%: 15.02%

Purchase Date: 09/21/2005
Holding Period: 17 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1037

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at El Cortez #506

The El Cortez is located on the top of Cortez Hill. It started as a hotel, turned into apartments about six years ago and then was converted to condominums near the very top of the market.

In my view this unit is still overpriced.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076010236)

List Price: $500,000

Cost: $520,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $50,000
Loss%: 9.62%

Purchase Date: 10/28/2004
Holding Period: 28 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1120

Purchase Details: view

Another Downtown Condo at Lofts at 777 6th Avenue #419

Here's another unit at the Lofts at 777 6th Avenue.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076010280)

List Price: $669,000
(Range priced $649,000 to $689,000)
Cost: $731,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $102,140
Loss%: 13.97%

Purchase Date: 10/04/2006
Holding Period: 4 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1119

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at doma #302

doma is a Citimark building in Little Italy, I would consider it a very high quality building.

Type: Listed on MLS(#070009335)

List Price: $529,900

Cost: $565,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $66,894
Loss%: 11.84%

Purchase Date: 07/09/2004
Holding Period: 31 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 960

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Discovery #104

Discovery is located on Cortez Hill and was built by Bosa Development in the earlier stages of the big development boom downtown.

This unit is interesting as I do recall when it was last sold, it was a relative bargain at the time and I also believe that it was listed for rent so this was probably an investment at the time.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076008970)

List Price: $587,938
(Range priced $575,000 to $600,876)
Cost: $605,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $52,338
Loss%: 8.65%

Purchase Date: 01/11/2006
Holding Period: 13 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1430

Purchase Details: view

$100K+ Loss on Downtown Condo at Treo #2300

Treo is a mid-level quality high rise condo in the Columbia District.

This unit last changed hands in almost three years ago in June 2004.

Type: Listed on MLS(#060094421)

List Price: $848,000

Cost: $899,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $101,880
Loss%: 11.33%

Purchase Date: 06/28/2004
Holding Period: 32 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1337

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Fahrenheit #401

Fahrenheit is in the ballpark district and is a CitiMark building. It's unique as the building wraps a parking garage. This gives the impression that there are a lot more units than there actually are.

This unit is interesting as it's selling below developer price, albeit this unit was probably sold in a later phase in the sales process.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076009690)

List Price: $679,500

Cost: $723,952
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $85,222
Loss%: 11.77%

Purchase Date: 03/27/2006
Holding Period: 11 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1317

Purchase Details: view

Hillcrest Condo at The Egyptian #409

The Egyptian is a recent condominium community located in Hillcrest on the border with North Park in the old Egyptian theater.

This is the second Egyptian condominium to make this list as unit #410 is also listed at a loss. This development was built by Citimark which puts out an excellent product so this loss is pretty much market forces driven.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066095991)

List Price: $559,000
(Range priced $549,000 to $569,000)
Cost: $617,539
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $92,079
Loss%: 14.91%

Purchase Date: 07/19/2005
Holding Period: 19 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1431

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Metrome #814

Metrome is located downtown San Diego Ballpark District development.

This unit has just taken a large price cut to below the price paid to the developer back in 2005. In my opinion this non-descript standard one bedroom condo is still overpriced.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066081452)

List Price: $395,000
(Range priced $380,000 to $410,000)
Cost: $461,700
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $90,400
Loss%: 19.58%

Purchase Date: 11/04/2005
Holding Period: 14 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 735

Purchase Details: view

Lender Owned Pacific Beach Condo - 4600 Lamont - The Plaza #314

This unit was built back in the 70s and has been on the market for awhile.

The price cut history shows a methodical price reduction from an optimistic price that was more than the unit last sold for in early 2004 to the current price. The sales history at sdlookup.com is also particularly interesting on this property.

Price Reduced: 09/27/06 -- $293,900 to $284,900
Price Reduced: 10/02/06 -- $284,900 to $279,900
Price Reduced: 10/24/06 -- $279,900 to $267,900
Price Reduced: 01/26/07 -- $267,900 to $249,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#066076476)

List Price: $249,900

Cost: $289,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,094
Loss%: 18.72%

Purchase Date: 03/19/2004
Holding Period: 34 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 653

Purchase Details: view

Bankers Hill Condo at Cambridge Square #407

This luxury condo on Bankers Hill is listed for exactly $100,000 less than the developer price set back in 2004.

Cambridge Square is a low rise mix of townhomes and condominiums on Nutmeg Street.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066045661)

List Price: $825,000

Cost: $925,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $149,500
Loss%: 16.16%

Purchase Date: 12/20/2004
Holding Period: 25 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1768

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Crown Bay #605

This two bedroom unit is listed below it's last sale price from the summer of 2004.

This building is a midrise property in the Gaslamp Quarter across from the San Diego Convention Center.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076006764)

List Price: $699,000

Cost: $735,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $77,940
Loss%: 10.60%

Purchase Date: 08/11/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1024

Purchase Details: view

State mortgage default rates at eight-year high

An extremely interesting statistic also comes to light in this today's Union Tribune article; "Most of the California loans that went into default last quarter were originated between January 2005 and February 2006, DataQuick reported. " Readers of the blog will recognize this time period as the most likely to be underwater. The market has clearly moved back to pre-2005 prices. I expect that we'll start to see a trend of more properties purchased in 2003 listed below purchase price.

I know a lot of people are hopeful that the downturn is over however I just don't see it happening in the short term. Affordability is still very low and the risk of buying overpriced property is very apparent to regular people on the streets. Prices need to continue to correct to a point where the disparity between buying and renting returns to pre-2002 levels.

UPDATE Foreclosed Downtown Condo - Park Boulevard West #1110

Park Boulevard West is located in the East Village/Ball Park District, note there are several new projects coming online with brand new units that are unsold. The price action in that part of the downtown market should be quite interesting in 2007.

This property has been on the market for awhile and had just sustained another $30,000+ price cut.

This latest price cut moves the list price of the unit very close to the original developer price set almost three years ago.

The price cut history is also of interest:
Price Reduced: 09/28/06 -- $364,900 to $358,900
Price Reduced: 10/02/06 -- $358,900 to $354,900
Price Reduced: 10/20/06 -- $354,900 to $344,900
Price Reduced: 11/24/06 -- $344,900 to $332,900
Price Reduced: 01/23/07 -- $332,900 to $299,900

More details about this and thousands of other properties availabe at Foreclosure.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#061069101)

List Price: $299,900

Cost: $380,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $98,094
Loss%: 25.81%

Purchase Date: 11/05/2004
Holding Period: 26 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 689

Purchase Details: view

Big Loss on La Jolla Property - 2130 VALLECITOS 92037

The MLS listing says this ocean view unit has been newly refurbished and is tenant occupied.

The price history at sdlookup.com is especially interesting on this one.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066100332)

List Price: $899,500

Cost: $1,050,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $204,470
Loss%: 19.47%

Purchase Date: 03/28/2005
Holding Period: 22 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1342

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Discovery #804

This two bedroom unit at Discovery is listed below its last sale price from 2004.

Type: Listed on MLS(#061092272)

List Price: $599,900

Cost: $618,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,094
Loss%: 8.75%

Purchase Date: 12/17/2004
Holding Period: 25 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2


Purchase Details: view

Three Losses at Lofts at 777 6th Avenue

Readers of this blog will remember a post or two on the lofts at 777 6th Avenue where future losses were speculated. The project was developed as rental apartments and were converted into condominiums a few years ago. The project does not appear be sold out. In addition there are three resale units that are listed for at losses to the current owners.

The three losses are below:

Unit #209

Type: Listed on MLS(#066087611)

List Price: $395,000

Cost: $441,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $69,700
Loss%: 15.80%

Purchase Date: 10/11/2006
Holding Period: 3 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 725

Purchase Details: view


Unit #236

Type: Listed on MLS(#066102911)

List Price: $395,000
(Range priced $385,000 to $405,000)
Cost: $440,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $68,700
Loss%: 15.61%

Purchase Date: 10/20/2006
Holding Period: 3 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 700

Purchase Details: view

Unit #425

Type: Listed on MLS(#066100209)

List Price: $554,000
(Range priced $539,000 to $569,000)
Cost: $619,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $98,240
Loss%: 15.87%

Purchase Date: 10/20/2006
Holding Period: 3 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1002

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Diamond Terrace #1209

Diamond Terrace is located in the Ballpark District.

This unit bought at a substantial premium to the original developer price. This isn't too surprising as most condominium projects take orders a few years before delivery. That said the second buyer's experience isn't working out too well.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066079139)

List Price: $507,500
(Range priced $495,000 to $520,000)
Cost: $530,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $52,950
Loss%: 9.99%

Purchase Date: 12/07/2005
Holding Period: 13 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 826

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at M2i #512

M2i is a loft project in the East Village and was built by CitiMark development.
This is the second loss at M2i noted on this blog. It's also notable that there are a handful of units still for sale by the developer.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076000656)

List Price: $535,000

Cost: $549,900
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $47,000
Loss%: 8.55%

Purchase Date: 03/02/2006
Holding Period: 10 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1126

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Palermo #509

Palermo is a low rise condominium technically located in Cortez Hill, since it's across the street from the Little Italy many fairly consider this development as being located in the more attractive Little Italy neighborhood. Palermo was developed to be "workforce housing" which based on my viewing of the quality there I interpret as low to middle level rental apartments. This project is similar to Acqua Vista, The Mills and Portico as they were all newly developed rental projects that were converted to condominiums at the height of the boom.

This unit is listed at a nearly $100K loss and priced less that the developer price from 2004.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076003016)

List Price: $534,900

Cost: $596,970
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $94,164
Loss%: 15.77%

Purchase Date: 10/29/2004
Holding Period: 27 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1106

Purchase Details: view

Major Default on an Apartment Conversion

As has been speculated on this blog in the past this news item from the Union Tribune is a very interesting read. A mechanics lien is pretty much a sign that that the contractors are not being paid. This is a sure sign of cash flow problems at the project and probably the developer level.

When a loss is taken on a loan like the bank is going to write off the losses and reset prices lower or put the project back into the rental market via a sale to an apartment operator. Either way it likely won't be sitting dormant for long.

I suspect that this will not be the last story of this variety that we'll be reading in 2007.

Also notable is discussion of some other troubled developments.

Downtown Condo at The Grande #3305

The Grande is a twin tower Bosa development located on the harborside of the Columbia District.

This unit has just had a $100,000 price cut which has put it below it's prior market valuation set in the spring of 2005, nearly two years ago.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066100855)

List Price: $1,299,000

Cost: $1,315,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $93,940
Loss%: 7.14%

Purchase Date: 05/06/2005
Holding Period: 20 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1625

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at ParkLoft #304

ParkLoft is located by Petco Park. It was an early project in the East Village area.

This particular unit sustained a recent $140,000 price cut which and is substantially lower than the last sale price in the summer of 2004.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066074284)

List Price: $559,000

Cost: $650,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $124,540
Loss%: 19.16%

Purchase Date: 08/31/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 0
Bathrooms: 1.5
Square Feet: 1305

Purchase Details: view

Foreclosed Mission Valley Home at Escala - 2641 Villas Way

Escala is located in the heart of Mission Valley.

This property has a lot going on:

• $100K+ loss

• Bank Foreclosure
  

• Listed below the developer price from over two years ago
  

• In addition this property has sustained the follow price reductions:
  

Price Reduced: 09/15/06 -- $619,900 to $599,900
Price Reduced: 10/17/06 -- $599,900 to $584,900
Price Reduced: 11/29/06 -- $584,900 to $569,900

Search for pending and fully foreclosed properties on Foreclosure.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066074814)

List Price: $569,900

Cost: $637,554
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $101,848
Loss%: 15.97%

Purchase Date: 12/10/2004
Holding Period: 25 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1425

Purchase Details: view

Thanks to an anonymous poster on the www.sdlookup.com forums for finding this property.

Downtown Condo at Lusso Lofts #7

Lusso Lofts is a former rental apartment project in Little Italy that was converted into condominiums. There are likely still some developer units for sale as well.

This large one bedroom unit has been on the market for almost two months and has had a recent $10,000 price cut.

Type: Listed on MLS(#068095020)

List Price: $455,000
(Range priced $440,000 to $470,000)
Cost: $499,900
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $72,200
Loss%: 14.44%

Purchase Date: 04/14/2006
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 800

Purchase Details: view

Hillcrest Condo at The Egyptian #410

The Egyptian is a recent condominium community located in Hillcrest on the border with North Park at the site of the the old Egyptian theater.

Besides the rather large loss this property is notable as the list price is less than the developer sold the unit for back in 2005.

The list price was reduced on 12/04/06 from $765,000 to $700,000.

Type: Listed on MLS(#061079777)

List Price: $700,000

Cost: $727,879
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $69,879
Loss%: 9.60%

Purchase Date: 07/28/2005
Holding Period: 18 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1556

Purchase Details: view

Big Loss on Foreclosed Downtown Condo at Park Blvd West #1105

Park Boulevard West is a low rise condominium in the East Village. This unit has sustained a substantial loss and is owned by the bank that loaned the money for this unit to the last owner.

More details about this and thousands of other properties available at Foreclosure.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066101451)

List Price: $450,000

Cost: $535,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $112,000
Loss%: 20.93%

Purchase Date: 11/24/2004
Holding Period: 25 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 910

Purchase Details: view

2007 Predictions

I started this blog in April of this year and nearly 200 posts later we find ourselves in a real estate market that has made a significant change in direction. I had been predicting this in other forums and with friends and colleagues for awhile which makes the market move not a surprise for myself however given that this was a very unpopular prediction I feel somewhat vindicated.

At any rate I am going to diverge from my usual posts featuring price action on specific properties and market news to make some predictions for 2007.

1.) San Diego property will continue to decline in value with condos continuing to lead the movement down. This decrease will range from 5-25%.

2.) Downtown condos will depreciate another 10-25% in another slow and orderly decline similar to how 2006 played out. Quality will be key in terms of holding value.

3.) At least one more downtown condo project will go rental before completion. As noted on this blog the former Broadway Lofts condominiums has reverted to a rental project. A potential candidate for going the rental route is Solara Lofts which is an office building conversion project that should be finished by early summer, since sales haven't started yet it may be prudent for them to pull the development off of the market until prices stabilize.

4.) The massive number of new urban condos coming will continue to impact price declines in the attached sector of the market, however since many of the developers will decide to carry inventory for 3-6 months after project completion and since the natural tendency for construction projects to take longer than scheduled the inventory increase and price declines continue into 2008.

In summary the decline trend continues for 2007 with a bottom in the market pushed out past the coming year. A significant wildcard are interest rates which could drive a quicker decline if the one two punch of materially higher rates combined with adjustable mortgage resets combines to drive more foreclosure and short sale activity.

Have a great new year!

Downtown Condo at Treo #600

Treo a high rise developed located in the Columbia District, while close to Little Italy it is often misrepresented as being located in the more popular Little Italy. This may change as the Navy Broadway complex revamps the neighborhood into a much nicer destination. The train is awfully loud as well and that is supposed to be fixed by CCDC at some point in the future.

This particular unit is listed below it's late summer 2005 price.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066090885)

List Price: $695,000
(Range priced $675,000 to $715,000)
Cost: $750,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $96,700
Loss%: 12.89%

Purchase Date: 09/07/2005
Holding Period: 15 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 3
Square Feet: 1337

Purchase Details: view

Luxury Downtown Condo at Harbor Club #2304

Harbor Club is a twin tower development in the Marina District on the border with the Gaslamp Quarter. This project is often referenced as the one that was developed and ended up vacant with condos sold at auction during the last real estate market downturn.

This unit has recently endured a price cut which has generated a large loss.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066064731)

List Price: $1,399,000

Cost: $1,490,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $174,940
Loss%: 11.74%

Purchase Date: 12/22/2005
Holding Period: 12 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1572

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Cityfront Terrace #1705

Cityfront Terrace is a mid rise building located in the Marina District. This project is unique as it was developed during the prior real estate boom and ended up as rental project for a number of years as the condo market crash at the time made selling the building as condominiums unfeasible.

This particular unit is listed for sale below its prior price sales price from the summer of 2004. The MLS listing is offering an additional $4,500 for closing costs which is not factored into the loss calculation below.

The unit has endured the following price cuts:
Price Reduced: 08/11/06 -- $535,000 to $525,000
Price Reduced: 08/22/06 -- $525,000 to $500,000

Type: Listed on MLS(#066055232)

List Price: $507,500
(Range priced $500,000 to $515,000)
Cost: $532,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,950
Loss%: 10.33%

Purchase Date: 07/21/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 975

Purchase Details: view

Bank Foreclosed Downtown Condo at Trellis #519

Trellis is located at the end of 5th Avenue in the Gaslamp.

This unit has changed hands twice with the second buyer going into foreclosure. This unit listed on foreclosure.com.

Based on the below list price activity it appears that bank actually tried to sell this unit for more than the last sales price but has quickly cut the price to below the prior transaction price.

Price Reduced: 11/06/06 -- $439,900 to $384,900
Price Reduced: 12/05/06 -- $384,900 to $374,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#061087982)

List Price: $374,900

Cost: $409,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $56,594
Loss%: 13.84%

Purchase Date: 08/26/2005
Holding Period: 16 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 678

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at The Mills #204

This two bedroom unit at this Mills is as pretty generic as they get, what's notable is that the price is less than the developer price in 2004. While the closing probably occurred in July the prices at The Mills were set a number of months before as this was a new building, designed as rentals and converted into condos before the building was completed. At this point downtown the Mills is likely to be the first newer project where all units in the project are worth less than the developer price so pretty much everyone has lost money there.

At this price the unit is very much still overpriced in my opinion as the rental value of the unit is no more than $2,000 per month.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066078671)

List Price: $500,000
(Range priced $480,000 to $520,000)
Cost: $524,287
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,287
Loss%: 10.35%

Purchase Date: 07/02/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1090

Purchase Details: view

Large Loss on Luxury Downtown Condo at ParkLoft #301

Parkloft is a mid-rise building one block from Petco Park in the East Village.

This unit has changed hands twice and is getting close to the original developer pricing of $629,900 from March 2003 based on the sales history at sdlookup.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066095388)

List Price: $700,000

Cost: $800,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $142,000
Loss%: 17.75%

Purchase Date: 06/10/2004
Holding Period: 30 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Loft
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1696

Purchase Details: view

SDBJ: Irvine Brokerage Assembles Local Team to Auction Off Condos

From the San Diego Business Journal a very interesting and timely article about the thousands of vacant condos in San Diego.

I would advise not participating in the first several auctions if they occur as there is a lot of inventory out there and prices need to continue going down.

Housing market's reality check

Very timely article in today's Union Tribune about short sales. Readers of this blog will not be surprised at the specific examples discussed in the article. I think it's very important to note that these properties will be sold at a loss to the banks and mortgage lenders.

At some points in this debate and analysis over real estate prices in San Diego some observers and pundits noted that "people don't sell in down markets" - it's clear that people will and are selling at lower prices

Downtown Condo at M2i #311

M2i is a loft project in the East Village and was built by CitiMark development.
The loss on the unit isn't the most interesting detail, while substantial, the most interesting fact on this property is that to my knowledge this the first loss at M2i which is a very new project to be completed.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066098734)

List Price: $495,000
(Range priced $485,000 to $505,000)
Cost: $512,769
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $47,469
Loss%: 9.26%

Purchase Date: 01/10/2006
Holding Period: 11 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 0
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1187

Purchase Details: view

Million+ Luxury Downtown Condo at The Grande #1305

The Grande is a twin tower luxury high rise project built by Bosa Development and is located in the Columbia District. This large unit is in the south tower which was the first tower completed.

Type: Listed on MLS(#061050873)

List Price: $1,050,000
(Range priced $1,000,000 to $1,100,000)
Cost: $1,150,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $163,000
Loss%: 14.17%

Purchase Date: 10/19/2004
Holding Period: 26 months and counting...

Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1625

Purchase Details: view

Tiny Condo, Huge Loss - Downtown Condo at The Mills #514

The Mills is located on Cortez Hill, it was designed and developed as rental apartments but was converted into condominiums almost at the exact high in the market.

I used to watch people queue up on Saturday mornings for the various sales phases. At this point every single property at this project is probably underwater relative to original developer cost. While the Mills is low grade housing the studios there like this property have the distinction of being the worst design of any condos built during the large development wave. This is all in my opinion of course but if you've seen these unit you'll probably agree.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066098986)

List Price: $239,000

Cost: $295,500
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $70,840
Loss%: 23.97%

Purchase Date: 08/19/2004
Holding Period: 28 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Studio
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 450

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at doma #111

Doma is a CityMark building on Kettner Boulevard in Little Italy.

This large luxury unit is listed as a corporate relocation on the MLS. This probably indicates that some or all of the loss is being taken by a large company rather than the individual that purchased the unit. This is a good example of how some property will be for sale regardless of market conditions.

List Price History:
Price Reduced: 08/23/06 -- $769,900 to $749,900
Price Reduced: 09/26/06 -- $749,900 to $699,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#061053971)

List Price: $699,000
Cost: $797,500
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $140,440
Loss%: 17.61%

Purchase Date: 09/22/2006
Holding Period: 3 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1754

Purchase Details: view

Bank Foreclosure in Scripps Ranch - 11797 FANTASIA CT

Another typical family home in Scripps Ranch is now bank owned after going through the foreclosure process.

The sales history at Sdlookup.com shows the huge run up in pricing over the ten year span between 1996 and 2006. The obvious question is how much are we going to retrace values?

Search for this and hundreds of other foreclosures on www.foreclosure.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066097654)

List Price: $745,000

Cost: $788,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $87,700
Loss%: 11.13%

Purchase Date: 05/19/2006
Holding Period: 7 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 3
Square Feet: 2,395

Purchase Details: view

Broadway Lofts: Apartments, then Condos, now Apartments Again

Those of you who follow the downtown market will be interested in knowing that the historic building on the corner of 5th and Broadway which was going to converted into apartments and then into condos is now back to being apartments again.

The project never had any dedicated parking which would probably be better as inexpensive rentals for students and service workers who live and work downtown or off the trolley line.

Broadwaylofts.com rental information

Bank Foreclosure in Scripps Ranch - 11326 Village Ridge Rd

This typically family home in Scripps Ranch is now bank owned after going through the foreclosure process.

Search for this and hundreds of other foreclosures on Search for this and hundreds of other foreclosures on www.RealtyTrac.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066097465)

List Price: $660,000

Cost: $705,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $84,600
Loss%: 12.00%

Purchase Date: 11/30/2005
Holding Period: 13 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1880

Resale Details: view

Downtown Condo at Symphony Terrace #202

This nondescript one bedroom unit without a view is offered for sale for less than the current owner paid way back in March 2004.

Symphony Terrace is located on Cortez Hill right next to Copely Symphony Hall and is an area of downtown with a lot of new building activity including Cortez Blu, Vantage Pointe and Aria.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066070596)

List Price: $339,000
(Range priced $339,000 to $339,000)
Cost: $356,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $37,340
Loss%: 10.49%


Purchase Date: 03/11/2004
Holding Period: 33 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 673

Purchase Details: view

Single Family Home at Liberty Station - 2923 FARRAGUT RD, SD - Point Loma, CA 92106

This is the first property at Liberty Station to appear on this blog. Liberty Station is the former naval training center just west of Lindbergh Field. I'm sure the jets are loud there.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066063999)

List Price: $769,500
(Range priced $799,000 to $740,000)
Cost: $825,379
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $102,049
Loss%: 12.36%


Purchase Date: 01/24/2005
Holding Period: 23 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 3
Square Feet: 1931

Purchase Details: view

UPDATE: Downtown Condo at La Vita #1804

Pretty amazing price action on this unit at La Vita. It's been price cut again and is now down to $360,000. According to sdlookup.com the unit was priced at $292,000 by the developer, we appear to be well on our way back to original/developer pricing at La Vita.

Keep in mind that this is a short sale which means a deep pocketed financial institution is talking the loss not the current owner. It's in banks interest to work with the owner to avoid keeping a non-performing loan and their books. I think this is a very good example of how fast prices can be cut, even below the cost as the reality is this unit was never really worth it's sale price of $455,000 back in April 2005.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066092848)

List Price: $360,000

Cost: $455,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $116,600
Loss%: 25.63%


Purchase Date: 04/29/2005
Holding Period: 19 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 706

Purchase Details: view



Note if you want to read the original post about this property simply use the Google site search below.

Downtown Condo at The Grande #801

The Grande is a twin tower luxury high rise in the Columbia District downtown.

This unit has changed hands twice since the building was completed by Bosa Development in 2004. The second transaction is resulting in a significant loss

Type: Listed on MLS(#066076553)

List Price: $899,000
(Range priced $899,000 to $899,000)
Cost: $920,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $74,940
Loss%: 8.15%

Purchase Date: 07/14/2005
Holding Period: 16 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1684

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Harbor Club #3302

This luxury unit last changed hands in the summer of 2005.

Harbor Club is the twin tower "older" complex across the street from the Convention Center. It's an interesting development to watch as the price history on SDLookup.com goes back to to the early 90s. Pretty amazing price action.

You can view the price history here: view

Type: Listed on MLS(#066092124)

List Price: $1,549,000
(Range priced $1,499,000 to $1,599,000)

Cost: $1,650,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $193,940
Loss%: 11.75%

Purchase Date: 08/05/2005
Holding Period: 15 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1474

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Trellis #411

This downtown condo is listed as fully furnished for the right offer. Most likely this infers that that unit was an investment or second property and given the loss the owner is taking this is pretty time to move on for the current owner.

Trellis is located on the southern end of Fifth Avenue which is the main street in the Gaslamp Quarter

Type: Listed on MLS(#066084546)

List Price: $439,000
(Range priced $439,000 to $439,000)
Cost: $480,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $67,340
Loss%: 14.03%

Purchase Date: 06/17/2005
Holding Period: 17 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 803

Purchase Details: view

Scripps Ranch Investment - 11049 Caminito Arcada

This home is owned by a real estate investment outfit called "EKM Properties LLC", it was purchased back in the summer for 2004 for just under $500K and recent went into pending sale status with a list price of $448,900.

Type: Listed on MLS (#066060971)

Resale Price: $448,900
Cost: $499,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $77,034
Loss%: 15.44%

Purchase Date: 07/09/2004
Holding Period: 28 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1172

Purchase Details: view

From whirlwind to tailspin | The San Diego Union-Tribune

Here's a very interesting update on how real estate agents and brokers are doing in the current market conditions. I would add to this article my observations that a lot of real estate and mortgage sales people seem to be active in investment property as well.

From whirlwind to tailspin The San Diego Union-Tribune

UPDATE: Downtown Condo at Victorian House #7

This property has endured another price cut, the loss is now over $100,000.

*******************************************

The Victorian House is a small seven unit complex in Little Italy.

This unit is listed below the original developer price/value from early 2004. The price cut history below shows a long process of price cutting. In addition to the general market slowdown, the fact that this is a very large condo with only one parking spot in a non-amenity building is likely hurting the resale efforts of this unit.

Price Reduced: 06/13/06 -- $650,000 to $599,000
Price Reduced: 08/09/06 -- $599,000 to $589,000
Price Reduced: 08/31/06 -- $589,000 to $579,000
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $579,000 to $574,000
Price Reduced: 11/11/06 -- $574,000 to $549,000

Type: Listed on MLS(#061013465)

Resale Price: $549,000
Cost: $617,400

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $101,340
Loss%: 16.4%

Purchase Date: 02/27/2004
Holding Period: 33 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1492

Purchase Details: view

Real Estate Agent Owned Downtown Condo at Union Square #2409

Here's a short sale that's owned by a real estate agent. The sale also includes three flat panel televisions. These are not included in the loss calcuation.

There were a lot of these 700 square foot units at Union Square that were flipped so one could speculate that there are a number of simiilar units all worth less than what the current owner paid.

Union Square is a three building low rise condo complex in downtown's East Village.

Type: Listed on MLS(#068089931)

List Price: $345,000
(Range priced $325,000 to $365,000)
Cost: $385,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $60,700
Loss%: 15.77%

Purchase Date: 09/29/2004
Holding Period: 26 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 710

Purchase Details: view

Scripps Ranch Single Family Home Listed Below 2004 Price - 12838 Hideaway Lane

The MLS listing description indicates this property is vacant and the seller if motivated. The SDLookup.com report shows only one sale so this property is likey trading below the developer price from 2004.

Type: Listed on MLS(#068033953)

List Price: $875,000
(Range priced $850,000 to $899,000)
Cost: $916,990

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $94,490
Loss%: 10.30%

Purchase Date: 11/09/2004
Holding Period: 24 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 3390

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at 235 Market #403

235 Market is a low rise condo in the Marina District very close to the Gaslamp Quarter.

This one bedroom has declined in value a solid 10% since the last time it changed hands in early 2004. SDLookup.com shows a price of $271,810 in August 2001, if we look at the market as rolling back in price and time you have to wonder if we're heading as far back as 2001.

Price cut history:
Price Reduced: 06/19/06 -- $439,900 to $424,900
Price Reduced: 09/24/06 -- $424,900 to $399,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#066036945)

List Price: $399,900
Cost: $445,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $69,094
Loss%: 15.53%

Purchase Date: 03/30/2004
Holding Period: 32 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 734

Purchase Details: view

Scripps Ranch Single Family Home - 10935 Caminito Arboles, San Diego, CA 92131

Here's another pretty standard single family home in Scripps Ranch.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066086668)

Resale Price: $639,000
Cost: $659,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $58,340
Loss%: 8.85%

Purchase Date: 09/06/2005
Holding Period: 14 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1968

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Victorian House #7

The Victorian House is a small seven unit complex in Little Italy.

This unit is listed below the original developer price/value from early 2004. The price cut history below shows a long process of price cutting. In adddition to the general market slowdown, the fact that this is a very large condo with only one parking spot in a non-amenity building is likely huring the resale efforts of this unit.

Price Reduced: 06/13/06 -- $650,000 to $599,000
Price Reduced: 08/09/06 -- $599,000 to $589,000
Price Reduced: 08/31/06 -- $589,000 to $579,000
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $579,000 to $574,000

Type: Listed on MLS(#061013465)

Resale Price: $574,000
Cost: $617,400

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $77,840
Loss%: 12.61%

Purchase Date: 02/27/2004
Holding Period: 33 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1492

Purchase Details: view

Prices are declining, but not all areas act the same

New article in today's Union Tribune has some wild decline numbers, however as many of us know the aggregate number approach isn't that useful which is a large reason for the blog's existence as we like to look at specific properties.

Nevertheless the downward price movement is very clear. How long will it persist?

Story Link: Prices are declining, but not all areas act the same The San Diego Union-Tribune

Scripps Ranch Single Family Home Priced Below June 2004 Value - 11060 Ivy Hill Dr

This is a pretty standard single family home, what's interesting is that it is listed below the price it last changed hands for back in June 2004.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066090241)

Resale Price: $549,000
Cost: $580,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $63,940
Loss%: 11.02%

Purchase Date: 06/10/2004
Holding Period: 29 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1470

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Cityfront Terrace #1205

This luxury unit has depreciated below what it changed hands for in July 2004. This unit has been on the market for over 200 days and has oddly had a price increase a few weeks ago.

Since the unit has been listed for quite sometime a reasonable conclusion is that it's overpriced.

Note the price change history:
Price Reduced: 06/03/06 -- $799,000 to $789,000
Price Reduced: 06/13/06 -- $789,000 to $775,000
Price Reduced: 08/08/06 -- $775,000 to $729,000
Price Increased: 10/19/06 -- $729,000 to $749,000

Cityfront Terrace is located in downtown's Marina District

Type: Listed on MLS(#066031291)

Resale Price: $749,000
Cost: $800,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $95,940
Loss%: 11.99%

Purchase Date: 07/07/2004
Holding Period: 28 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1211

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Portico #318

Here's another Portico unit that's been listed on day one at a loss.

Since this unit doesn't have a patio and is very small in an building that was designed as rentals and then converted into condos the real value of this unit is probably no more than $1,200 a month. When you run the numbers including taxes and HOA the value of this unit is around $175,000. I'm not sure they will go that low but that's all it's really worth if you think in terms of monthly payment.

The sales history shows the first sale which was likely from the developer to the first owner in the low $200,000s so this unit appears to be in pretty big trouble.

Portico is in downtown's Little Italy neighborhood.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066091539)

Resale Price: $304,000
(Range priced $299,000 to $309,000)
Cost: $320,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $34,240
Loss%: 10.70%

Purchase Date: 06/22/2005
Holding Period: 17 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 553

Purchase Details: view

Single Family Home Flip Goes Bad - 9879 Caminito Pudregal Diego, CA 92131

This property was recently purchased in April 2006 for $920,000. I'll speculate that this was a flip purchase that's gone awry. It recently went into pending sale status with a list price of $880,000 leaving a substantial loss of $90,000+.

Additionally interesting is the sales history available on the newly released sdlookup.com. It shows a sale in 2003 for $590,000 on this property. Are we headed back to 2003 prices? See this property on SDLookup.com

Type: Listed on MLS(#066085434)

Resale Price: $880,000
Cost: $920,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $92,800
Loss%: 10.09%

Purchase Date: 04/11/2006
Holding Period: 7 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 2081

Purchase Details: view

Time Will Tell if Condotel Mania Will Fizzle in Slowdown

Will the condotel craze go down as the Pets.com of the housing craze? These projects will be very interesting to watch as they are hard to monitor since to my knowledge these types of properties do not currently exist in San Diego.

San Diego Business Journal Online - Time Will Tell if Condotel Mania Will Fizzle in Slowdown

Luxury Downtown Condo at Renaissance #509

Renaissance is located in the Marina District.

This is a high quality project located near the border with the Gaslamp Quarter.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066067125)

Resale Price: $765,000
Cost: $790,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $70,900
Loss%: 8.97%

Purchase Date: 03/24/2006
Holding Period: 7 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1634

Purchase Details: view

Twice burned | The San Diego Union-Tribune

It seems that pretty much everyone now acknowledges the declining real estate market. This is evidenced by almost daily articles like this Union Tribune article.

Twice burned The San Diego Union-Tribune

Downtown Condo at Metrome #204

Metrome is a downtown San Diego Ballpark District development.

This is one of many units to be price cut to below 2005 pricing.

Type: Listed on MLS(#061041749)

Resale Price: $455,000
Cost: $460,700

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $33,000
Loss%: 7.16%

Purchase Date: 09/12/2005
Holding Period: 13 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 966

Purchase Details: view

UTC Condo at Villa Vicenza - 3550 Lebon Drive #6414

Substantial loss on a this small one bedroom condo in UTC.

I think this is a great example of the risks involved with overpaying for an apartment conversion condonium.

The price reduction history shows a once optimistic owner that has since cut the price substantially below cost from less than a year ago.

Price Reduced: 05/14/06 -- $359,900 to $270,000
Price Reduced: 06/12/06 -- $270,000 to $240,000

Type: Listed on MLS(#068035634)

Resale Price: $257,435
(Range priced $240,000 to $274,870)
Cost: $328,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $86,011
Loss%: 26.22%

Purchase Date: 11/29/2005
Holding Period: 11 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 600

Purchase Details: view

Thanks to PerryChase from the Piggington.com site forums for pointing this property out!

Massive Loss on New Single Family Home - 13348 Shadetree Court- Scripps Miramar, CA 92131

It's only fitting that the 100th post to feature a specific losing property also turn out to be the biggest dollar loss so far. This property was built in 2005 and changed hands only once so we can assume that the price data below was the price paid to the developer of the home.

Currently listed at a price range that when taking the average leads to a huge loss of $288,000+ when assuming 6% sales expense.

Type: Listed on MLS(#068084420)

Resale Price: $1,242,900
(Range priced $1,199,900 to $1,285,900)
Cost: $1,456,924

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $288,598
Loss%: 19.81%

Purchase Date: 01/06/2006
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 4.5
Square Feet: 5060

Purchase Details: view

Thanks to John for the lead on the property. Send examples of losses to me directly at brightside@inbox.com!

$133,000+ Loss on Single Family Home in Scripps Ranch - 13177 Bella Rosa Road 92131

This large loss on this single family home is likely being taking by a flipper as this property was purchased in March of this year.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066083471)

Resale Price: $874,888
(Range priced $849,888 to $899,888)
Cost: $956,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $133,605
Loss%: 13.98%

Purchase Date: 03/02/2006
Holding Period: 7 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 5
Square Feet: 3,564

Purchase Details: view

Thanks to John for the lead on the property. Send examples of losses to me directly at brightside@inbox.com!

Low bids curtail auction of homes

The results of the model home auction are in and aren't a big surprise. Nothing sold yesterday. I do think this is yet another data point on a long chart down in prices.

Anyone care to speculate what these homes are really worth?

Low bids curtail auction of homes The San Diego Union-Tribune

Model Homes to be Auctioned Off

Very interesting article from the Union Tribune on an auction that's taking place this weekend. While the investor group made up of attorneys from LA do not have to sell the prices they receive will be very interesting.

SignOnSanDiego.com: In declining market, sellers putting homes on the block

$100,000+ Loss on 4S Ranch Home - 9965 Fieldthorn St, San Diego, CA 92127

Here's a great example of a single family detached home in North County San Diego that's seen a signficant value decline since it last changed hands just less than a year ago.

The price reduction history below speaks for itself:

Price Reduced: 07/21/06 -- $545,000 to $530,000
Price Reduced: 09/13/06 -- $530,000 to $519,000
Price Reduced: 09/23/06 -- $519,000 to $500,000
Price Reduced: 10/16/06 -- $500,000 to $490,000

Type: Listed on MLS(#066046518)

Resale Price: $495,000
(Range priced $490,000 to $500,000)
Cost: $571,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $105,700
Loss%: 18.51%

Purchase Date: 11/30/2005
Holding Period: 11 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1581

Purchase Details: view

Thanks to John for the lead on the property. Send examples of losses to me directly at brightside@inbox.com!

Downtown Condo at Palermo #201

Palermo is another apartment conversion that's made this blog on a number of occaisions. This one is noteable as this isn't a flipper unit as it was purchased from the developer.

This development is located on "lower" Cortez Hill on the border with Little Italy. If you come downtown using 5 South and take the Front Street exit you'll drive right by this property.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066079965)

Resale Price: $699,000
Cost: $719,990

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $62,930
Loss%: 8.74%

Purchase Date: 06/30/2005
Holding Period: 16 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1568

Purchase Details: view

Fraud? Or just risk?

Very interesting article on more fraud and malfeasance in the real estate investment arena. Note that Crown Pointe Villas has been discussed on this blog before so now we're getting some answers on what has been taking place there.

Fraud? Or just risk? | The San Diego Union-Tribune

Downtown Condo at Diamond Terrace #607

Diamond Terrace is in the Ballpark District near Petco Park.

This small studio has lost $50,000+ in just on year and is listed as a short sale on the MLS. A short sale in the real estate market is defined as a sale that is taking place for less than what is currently owed. The bank ends up park of the sales process as it will be taking a loss at closing and has to agree to the sales price.

Type: Listed on MLS(#068080946)

Resale Price: $295,450
(Range priced $285,000 to $305,900)
Cost: $329,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $51,277
Loss%: 15.59%

Purchase Date: 12/19/2005
Holding Period: 10 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Studio
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 467

Purchase Details: view

Foreclosed Downtown Condo at Union Square #2627

Union Square is deep in the East Village in a somewhat rough area.

This unit is one of the very nice loft units. Other very similar loft units sold for over $600,000 at the height of the boom. This unit sold in late 2004 for $565,000 and has since gone into foreclosure.

Foreclosure.com indicates the unit is now owned by Morgan Stanley which is a very large financial services firm.

Resale Price: $499,900
Cost: $565,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $95,094
Loss%: 16.83%

Purchase Date: 12/10/2004
Holding Period: 22 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1250

Purchase Details: view

Union Tribune: Local home prices continue to fall

Noteable stats in this article include "The $476,000 overall median was down $6,000 from August and off $22,000 from September last year, the biggest year-over-year dollar reduction DataQuick has reported since it began keeping local records in 1988."

The article also notes that prices have moved back to early 2005 levels. I suspect we are heading towards 2004 soon in terms of the median price. This blog has many many examples of properties that are listed or have sold for less than 2004 prices.

Local home prices continue to fall

UPDATE: $56,000 Price Cut on Downtown Condo at La Vita #1804

Here's an update to a prior post on a one bedroom at La Vita.

The unit has just taken a $56,000 price cut to drive the loss to a massive ~$79,000, that's a substantial loss an 18 month and counting investment. In terms of a "rent adjusted cost" calculation the loss plus the mortgage payment is likely $8,000 per month, that's a lot of money for a small one bedroom apartment.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066037517 )

Resale Price: $399,000
Cost: $455,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $79,940
Loss%: 17.57%


Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 706

Purchase Date: 04/29/2005
Holding Period: 18 months and counting...

Purchase Details: view

Luxury Condo at Cityfront Terrace sells for less than it did in 2004 - #508

CityFront Terrace is a luxury condominium project in the Marina District downtown.

This unit has closed sale for ~7% less than the price it changed hands for two years ago. I have been reading quotes from sales people lately that state "We are down to a normal 5-6% annual appreciation downtown". I don't know where they are getting these numbers and I'd love to get a sense for what they are referring to.

Type: Closed Sale

Resale Price: $565,000
Cost: $612,500

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $81,400
Loss%: 13.29%

Resale Date: 07/11/2006

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1046

Purchase Date: 10/08/2004
Holding Period: 21 months

Purchase Details: view

Resale Details: view

UPDATE: Yet Another Acqua Vista Condominium - #1406

A roughly $35,000 big price cut just went throughh on a prior entry. I think the pain here is starting to amp up a bit as this is a lot of money to lose on a small one bedroom condo.

Note this unit was listed, expired, and has now been relisted with a new MLS number which is noted below.

Type: Listed on MLS(#068084575)

Resale Price: $325,000
(Range priced $320,000 to $330,000)
Cost: $381,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $75,500
Loss%: 19.82%

Purchase Date: 03/09/2005
Holding Period: 19 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 655

Purchase Details: view

Union Tribune: S.D. home price fall predicted at 8.5%

Timely article from the Union Tribune commenting on the national report from Moody's Economy on the national housing market that was released today.

Keep in mind that "Condos were excluded from Economy.com's forecast because it lacked good data." Note that condos historically are more volatile than single family detached housing.

SignOnSanDiego.com S.D. home price fall predicted at 8.5%

Downtown Condo at El Cortez #407

The El Cortez is the landmark at the very top of Cortez Hill, if you're driving on the 5 or 163 you'll notice the flashing "El Cortez" neon sign at the top of the building.

This listing is interesting as it's both the first property in the building to make in on the blog, it's another new listing in general that starts out below what the owner paid for the unit and the unit is listed below what the current owner paid the developer of the project.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066084499)

Resale Price: $379,900
Cost: $410,500

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $53,394
Loss%: 13.01%

Purchase Date: 01/28/2005
Holding Period: 21 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: n/a

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Metrome #702

This fairly large studio at Metrome is the fourth property from the Ballpark District complex to make the list.

I suspect that a majority of the units sold are now worth less than the current owners paid. Note the developer is still selling units in this complex.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066084019)

Resale Price: $342,000
Cost: $356,700

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $35,220
Loss%: 9.87%

Purchase Date: 10/21/2005
Holding Period: 12 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Studio
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 718

Purchase Details: view

Mortgage Broker Forced into Short Sale on Downtown Condo at Acqua Vista #206

More evidence that the real estate slowdown is starting to impact local investors, this Acqua Vista unit is noted as a vacant and staged short sale by a mortgage broker.

Acqua Vista isn't a stranger to this blog, note this was an original purchase from the developer and not a flip purchase which is also an interesting detail as this would seem to indicate that at least a portion of the original sales between the developer, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc, and the original buyers have now yielded a negative return.

Another interesting detail is Foreclosure.com lists five Acqua Vista properties currently undergoing foreclosure proceedings.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066083899)

Resale Price: $329,000
(Range priced $299,000 to $359,000)
Cost: $355,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $45,740
Loss%: 12.88%

Purchase Date: 10/28/2004
Holding Period: 24 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 821

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at The Mills #522

The Mills is an apartment conversion on Cortez Hill.

The lofts units are probably the most over-priced real estate downtown so this price cut to a large loss comes as no surprise.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066083981)

Resale Price: $499,900
Cost: $557,900

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $87,994
Loss%: 15.77%

Purchase Date: 03/29/2005
Holding Period: 19 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 953

Purchase Details: view

Big Loss on Downtown Condo at Treo #318

Treo is a high rise building in downtown's Columbia neighborhood. This is very close to the highly debated Broadway development that has been in the news lately.

This unit was purchased one year ago and has caused a serious loss to occur. At $70,000+ the cost of living in this small non-view one bedroom condo approaches $8,000 per month!

Type: Listed on MLS(#066083604)

Resale Price: $359,990
Cost: $410,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $71,609
Loss%: 17.47%

Purchase Date: 09/30/2005
Holding Period: 12 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 687

Purchase Details: view

Another High-End Downtown Condo Lists for a Loss - Cityfront Terrace #1601

Cityfront Terrace is a mid-rise development in the Marina District.

In a bit of irony it was developed as condos during the previous real estate boom and bust cycle and couldn't be sold as condominiums so it was reverted to a rental property for a number of years. The units were then sold off as condominiums again when the now busting boom cycle was underway.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066082869)

Resale Price: $839,000
Cost: $880,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $91,340
Loss%: 10.38%

Purchase Date: 12/08/2005
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1492


Purchase Details: view

Yet another Downtown Condo at Acqua Vista #105

Here's another unit at Acqua Vista that's listed for a loss. This is a new listing so again it's interesting that people are coming out with their first price that's less than they paid. This is the only practical approach if you need to sell.

For new readers of this blog Acqua Vista is a newer building in downtown's Little Italy neighborhood. It was developed as a rental property and was converted into condos before the building was completed.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066082919 )

Resale Price: $555,777
(Range priced $530,777 to $580,777)
Cost: $594,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $71,570
Loss%: 12.05%

Purchase Date: 10/14/2005
Holding Period: 11 months and counting...

Purchase Details: view

Luxury Downtown Condo at Park Place Sells for $98,000 Loss - #506

Park Place is a high rise Bosa building in downtown's Marina District.

This is the third showing on the list for Park Place.

Park Place is one of downtown's premier buildings in one of the best neighborhoods so this should give you a pretty good indication of the price peformance of higher end units since 2004.

Type: Closed Sale

Resale Price: $800,000
Cost: $850,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $98,000
Loss%: 11.53%

Resale Date: 08/11/2006
Purchase Date: 10/28/2004
Holding Period: 22 months

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1227

Purchase Details: view

Resale Details: view

Condo conversion craze grinds to halt

The Union Tribune weighs in with this timely article on the end of the condo conversion craze.

I think that the likely thousands of apartments that are empty are a strong factor in the boost in the strength of the rental market.

Luxury Downtown Condo at Horizons Listed Below 2004 Cost - #905

Horizons is a Bosa development in the Marina District.

This luxury unit has been on the market for almost three months.

Price cut history of this unit:
Price Reduced: 08/03/06 -- $829,900 to $819,900
Price Reduced: 09/07/06 -- $819,900 to $799,900

Type: Listed on MLS(#068054852)

Resale Price: $799,900
Cost: $810,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $58,094
Loss%: 7.17%

Purchase Date: 09/10/2004
Holding Period: 24 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1245

Purchase Details: view

Downtown Condo at Acqua Vista #433

Here's another unit at Acqua Vista that's listed below the price the current owners paid the developer.

Also interesting is that they listed this unit for a loss without putting the unit at a higher price, not getting any offers (or likely no walkthroughs) and then cutting the price. Perhaps we are at a point where almost everyone including real estate agents recognize the market for having made a clear move down.

Going back to my point about listing below developer price, there were a fair number of flipped units in this building so the losses must be mounting.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066081157)

Resale Price: $384,900
Cost: $391,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $29,194
Loss%: 7.47%

Purchase Date: 04/01/2005
Holding Period: 17 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2

Bathrooms: 1

Square Feet: 877


Purchase Details: view

More Unhappy Condo Owners - www.elcortez.info

Just up Cortez Hill from the under-development SmartCorner that was featured in the previous post, some of the owners and neighbors of the historic El Cortez are organizing to stop the proposed 777 Beech development which is proposed for the same block as the El Cortez.

I have no idea if all of the accusations on the elcortez.info website are true but they are very much worth a read. I did not know that the highly touted Mills Act property tax discount is being debated. I am also suspect of the sales practices of condo developments so I'm not surprised about some of the accusations.

I do think some more retail, which 777 Beech is proposing, would be very beneficial to Cortez Hill.

http://www.elcortez.info/

smartcornersucks.com

More controversy on a downtown high-rise project that is under development. The developer seems to have found a way to raise prices which is leaving contracted customers unhappy. Ironcically prices are going down, the developer may have been better off just leaving the prices where they were.

SMARTCORNERSUCKS.COM

Downtown Real Estate Sales People Starting to Feel the Pinch

A two bedroom unit located at Crown Bay in the Gaslamp District has slipped into foreclosure proceedings. Purchased for $750,000 in October 2004 it is not currently listed for sale, however I highly doubt it is worth that much in the current market.

Foreclosure.com shows a default of $26,884. While all this is becoming pretty standard the interesting detail is the owner of this unit is a real estate agent, in fact I believe the realty office is located in the Crown Bay building.

In the interest of privacy I won't copy the name, note the information is public and can be found by logging on to foreclosure.com. County records also indicate the same person owns 2621 Covington Road in North Park which is currently listed on the MLS (066032831). This indication of cash flow problems is yet another data point that the market has changed. I do believe we are just getting started as the market has a quite a lot of correcting to do before prices and fundamental valuations converge.

350 K Street #405 purchase details: view

The Upride Ends: Now It Gets Interesting

Don Bauder from the Reader ask a very appropriate question about what happens next now that the price boom is clearly over.

My own view is that we are just getting started and we won't know until this time next year how big the selloff is going to be.

The Upride Ends: Now It Gets Interesting

Yet another "Short Sale" listing - Downtown Condo at ParkLoft #218

This entry validates a what is becoming a clear trend, once again the MLS listing markets this property as a "Short Sale", this means the owner of the property is selling at a loss. That's obvious when you review the numbers below.

To be down $138,000 in just less than a year is quite interesting.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066078740)

Resale Price: $560,000
(Range priced $540,000 to $580,000)
Cost: $665,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $138,600
Loss%: 20.84%

Purchase Date: 09/26/2005
Holding Period: 12 months and counting...

Bedrooms: Loft
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 1281

Purchase Details: view

883 Antilla Way, San Marcos, CA 92078

We're heading up to San Marcos for this post as we focus on a home that was purchased in early 2005 that's been listed and relisted a few times.

Also noteable as that the houses on each side of this property are also for sale.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066078490)

Resale Price: $887,500
(Range priced $925,000 to $850,000)
Cost: $931,887

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $97,637
Loss%: 10.48%

Purchase Date: 03/03/2005
Holding Period: 18 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 4.5
Square Feet: 3,607

Purchase Details: view

Flippers Flee, Long-Term Investors Hold On

I love the "Where are they now" type of article, Kelley Bennett from the Voice of San Diego follows up on some of the investors in that now classic Money Magazine article on San Diego real estate from a little over a year ago.

voiceofsandiego.org: Flippers Flee, Long-Term Investors Hold On