Thursday, August 31, 2006

Survival... Like Déjà Vu, All Over Again

This could easily be called "The more things change, the more they stay the same." Excellent piece from Kelly Bennett of the Voice of San Diego on the real estate boom of 1886-88. Survival... Like Déjà Vu, All Over Again: "The Great Boom' of 1886-88."


Lew Breeze said...

Interesting read.

Is there anyone alive today that would like to have had a relative who had purchased San Diego land 100 years ago? I know I would. Event though likely at the time there were many skeptics in real estate (just like now, déjà vu). Even when real estate went down, those who held it (or their relatives) are glad they did.

Who knows, maybe we aren't at the bottom, but will real estate never rise again? Or does it only rise after you (not your Mr. Brightside, but you in the general sense) have decided to purchase?

Someday, downtown will be untouchable, in the sense that New York is untouchable to most of us now. Maybe not today, or a year from now. But 5 years from now? Or 10 years from now?

If a person buys to live or invest longterm (if they have money sitting around elsewhere), you or your family (in 20 years) will likely be glad you did. They certainly didn't name the Spreckles Building, or Horton Plaza, after the skeptics of the time.

No one rememembers those guys (the skeptics that is).

Mr. Brightside said...

Hi Lew,

I think it's all about liquidity and flexibility. If you bought an investment condo with 100% finanacing and negative cash flow you might get sold out at a bad time in the marketplace. This is occuring right now downtown as the weak holders are in trouble and are taking losses (or their financial instiution is taking the loss).

If you bought more condo that you can handle and the value continues to go down you won't have the flexibility to make a move if you want to.

I do think that between this article, the previous real estate "crash" in the early 90s and the selloff we're currently watching that the claim that "San Diego real estate never goes" down is a false claim and shouldn't be used anymore.

Lew Breeze said...

Everything you said is true.

Mark in San Diego said...

Agree - long term holders will be ok. . .As I posted earlier - I bought in 1991 in NORCAL, by 1994 the place was less than I paid, but when I sold early 2006, it had gone up 4 times in value. . .I hate to use old sayings, BUT . . ."Inch by inch wealth is a cinch, yard by yard, wealth is quite hard.". . .