Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Union Tribune: Local home prices continue to fall

Noteable stats in this article include "The $476,000 overall median was down $6,000 from August and off $22,000 from September last year, the biggest year-over-year dollar reduction DataQuick has reported since it began keeping local records in 1988."

The article also notes that prices have moved back to early 2005 levels. I suspect we are heading towards 2004 soon in terms of the median price. This blog has many many examples of properties that are listed or have sold for less than 2004 prices.

Local home prices continue to fall

7 comments:

nykid said...

Just returned from a tour of available condos in the Marina district. I stayed in the guest suite of the GRANDE. I was told the building was sold out by the builder(Bosa), but I found the building to be suprisingly EMPTY. After a 6 night stay, I can count the number of people I encountered in the health club. on one hand. Appx. 80% of the units I viewed were empty. Are there really people living downtown? or only FLIPPERS.

Anonymous said...

I live in SD (Pacific Beach) and think the same ting every time I go downtown.

And BTW they're still building.

Which way do you thnk the mirket will go?

Anonymous said...

ting = thing ;-)

Mark in San Diego said...

I have friends at the Grande, and they estimate 1/3 are "vacation homes" 1/3 people who actually live there, and 1/3 flippers. . .The vacation home people probably will hold on, but the 1/3 flippers are now in big trouble - $700 or more monthly HOA, and HUGE property taxes coming up in December.

Jim said...

I live in New England but spend a significant amount of time on the road, with much of it in San Diego. I believe San Diego's downtown is one of, if not THE nicest downtown areas in the country, and seriously considered moving there. Accordingly, I began to look at downtown condos about two years ago. I too was astounded at the apparent lack of condo residents despite claims by realtors that various buildings were sold-out or nearly sold-out. Something just didn’t feel right.

My brother is a long-time and highly successful commercial developer in the San Diego area. I told him of my observations regarding condo occupancy. He in so many words laughed at my comment and told me his investment banker buddies estimated that up to one-third of downtown condo sales were based upon pure speculation, with buyers hoping to flip for a quick profit.

BINGO! The WARNING light came on. I knew the downtown condo market was “heated,” but when I heard that I told myself it was time to stand back…WAAAY back…and let the games begin. I’ve been involved in speculative real estate bubbles before and wasn’t about to re-learn THAT disastrous lesson. Somebody was going to get left holding the bag and this time it wasn’t going to be me.

The other concern I had was the “creative methods” being used for financing these condo sales. Whenever I hear mortgage brokers pushing interest-only loans every RED FLAG in the world begins to pop up. During one of my many visits there I read a front-page article in the Sunday San Diego Union Tribune addressing just such financing, and the profound numbers of buyers using such loans. No thanks! To make a long story short, I didn’t buy a condo, but have continued watching the market from afar waiting to make my move. Based upon what I’m reading on this BLOG I suspect I’m going to have some good bottom-feeding opportunities in the near future.

A question for those of you living out there: As I understand it there are still new condos just now coming to market as construction is completed and the market is tanking. How are sales going on these new units? Are they pre-selling like Bosa’s did…or is the sales office empty? Are buyers backing out of the deal? I’d appreciate your insights on this.

This is a very useful BLOG…my hat’s off to Mr. Brightside. Thank you.

Regards,
Jim

Jim said...

I live in New England but spend a significant amount of time on the road, with much of it in San Diego. I believe San Diego's downtown is one of, if not THE nicest downtown areas in the country, and seriously considered moving there. Accordingly, I began to look at downtown condos about two years ago. I too was astounded at the apparent lack of condo residents despite claims by realtors that various buildings were sold-out or nearly sold-out. Something just didn’t feel right.

My brother is a long-time and highly successful commercial developer in the San Diego area. I told him of my observations regarding condo occupancy. He in so many words laughed at my comment and told me his investment banker buddies estimated that up to one-third of downtown condo sales were based upon pure speculation, with buyers hoping to flip for a quick profit.

BINGO! The WARNING light came on. I knew the downtown condo market was “heated,” but when I heard that I told myself it was time to stand back…WAAAY back…and let the games begin. I’ve been involved in speculative real estate bubbles before and wasn’t about to re-learn THAT disastrous lesson. Somebody was going to get left holding the bag and this time it wasn’t going to be me.

The other concern I had was the “creative methods” being used for financing these condo sales. Whenever I hear mortgage brokers pushing high risk instruments such as interest-only loans every RED FLAG in the world begins to pop up. During one of my many visits there I read a front-page article in the Sunday San Diego Union Tribune addressing just such financing, and the profound numbers of buyers using such loans. No thanks! To make a long story short, I didn’t buy a condo, but have continued watching the market from afar waiting to make my move. Based upon what I’m reading on this BLOG I suspect I’m going to have some good bottom-feeding opportunities in the near future.

A question for those of you living out there: As I understand it there are still new condos just now coming to market as construction is completed and the market is tanking. How are sales going on these new units? Are they pre-selling like Bosa’s did…or is the sales office empty? Are buyers backing out of the deal? I’d appreciate your insights on this.

This is a very useful BLOG…my hat’s off to Mr. Brightside! Thank you.

Regards,
Jim

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know of a chart/graph showing total San Diego county inventory over a period of many years, if not decades?

I would like to see it.

http://sandiego.houserebate.com/ has the total number of inventory at the current time: nearly 24,000.

It would be great if I could see a chart showing the ratio of inventory-for-sale over total product in existence. That figure would be more meaningful when looking at very long periods of time.