Saturday, February 24, 2007

ICON Sales Update

ICON is a multiple building development very close to Petco Park, construction is almost complete and people are moving into the complex now.

While this forum post can't be verified the size of their marketing effort and the current state of the housing market make these reasonable numbers.

327 Units Total
250 Approximately under contract
125 Closed Escrows
77 Unsold Units

My sense is that of the 125 contracted but unclosed escrows that a number of those will fail to close as well so let's figure that in within a month or so as the building is completely finished that 85-90 completed and unsold condos are entering the downtown market. That's about a 15% increase in supply relative to the current number of resale condos downtown.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think the market is still very crazy. I don't know who can afford any of these units downtown. I don't have any evidence to back up my opinion. However, these units will not change much in terms of prices. So far, price downtown goes down very modestly. Either one has to be really rich or mortgage "slave" to afford a decent unit downtown.

At least there is 50-year mortgage now, according to the sales agent for the Saphire Tower. I was surprise to hear such. Maybe we have to resort to such to get a place downtown.

Anonymous said...

Man, they saw you comin. Prices have gone down alot in Downtown for the non-prime units. As they decline further prices will come down on the prime ones as well.
Josh

Marty said...

Mr Brightside

Hi, something's wrong with the matth. Your category breakdown totals more than the total # of units for sale.

Who gave you the number of units under contract/ That's where the discrepancy may be and the total # available may, therefore, possibly be higher than posted.

Mr. Brightside said...

Marty,

I gleaned the numbers from a forum post on sdlookup.com. I think what's going on is that 250 units were "sold" meaning someone reserved the unit. Of these units half (125) have closed sale and have changed hands.

Clearly nobody really knows except a few people with the developer as this type of market information isn't publicly available like a stock or bond would require. I do think the numbers make sense based on their marketing effort they have put forward.

The sales activity on the new developments downtown is going to be a very good indication of the market's health and price direction. To my knowledge the downtown market has never had a large development complete construction downtown with more than a small percentage of units go unsold and many of those were contracts that failed to close. I imagine that of the 125 unclosed sales a fair number of those people are flippers/second home buyers that have go to be wondering if closing is a good idea or not. I suspect some of these people are going to try and delay closing for as long as possible. Also I'm sure a number of people sincerely bought units at ICON and wanted to move in as soon as possible and were very actively looking to close escrow and move into their unit. This means to me that the cancellation rate for the remaining unclosed reservations will be higher than the experienced on the first half.

Anonymous said...

I attended the open house today
I'm not sold on the location. The complex feels like college dorm / community college to me -- English Hall, Math Hall, etc...