Friday, September 07, 2007

Downtown Condo at Symphony Terrace #503

This Cortez Hill condo is interesting as it's last sale date is in early 2004, it's a bank owned property and based on the MLS pictures it was throughly trashed by the prior tenant.

Type: Listed on MLS(#076070982)

List Price: $209,900
Cost: $276,500
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $79,194
Loss%: 28.64%

Purchase Date: 02/18/2004
Holding Period: 43 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1

Purchase Details: view


Anonymous said...

Holy sh*t, you couldn't get me to buy that place for $100K!

Anonymous said...

Well actually I may pay 75k for that. You can repair and then have a mortgage of maybe 650/month...which ain't bad.

SB said...

Mr. Brightside, how many new condos are downtown for sale, and how many are coming online in the next year?

In the resale market, it's looking bad. Based on pending sales for August, we have a 17 month supply of homes for sale.

Mr. Brightside said...

Hi sb, shows 633

New buildings getting ready for move ins are SmartCorner, Alta and Electra.

Legend, Solara Lofts, Aria and Aloft at Cortez are new projects that still have unsold units in them.

I'm working on an analysis of how many have sold which would help us all understand the total supply that's out there.

SB said...

I am keeping a spreadhseet of inventory and sales and pending by zip code. I see 638 homes in downtown San Diego, with 42 sold, 36 pending giving us a 17.7 month supply.

Do you have any info on builder inventory that is not on the MLS?

Mr. Brightside said...

I do have information on the unsold inventories. I do plan to do a monthly post of this information.

It's somewhat qualitative as it'll be based on closes sales and there can be open escrows, etc. A good example of this was some discussion at about SmartCorner and 60 or so escrows that were ready to close but the financing was an issue due to the problems in the mortgage market. It'll always be hard to have a perfect read but there is an ability to get much better than we have.

SB said...

Just to clarify, you have builder inventory that is NOT on the MLS?

Sales will show MLS and builder sales.

Mr. Brightside said...

Close sale data will show everything that occurred, any time property changes hands it'll show up.

My approach will be to analyze the data and show the number of initial closed sales for a given project. The number of units in the building will tell you how many initial closings are possible.

Where it gets hard to be perfectly accurate is the status of any escrows, etc that haven't closed yet. Also adding a wrinkle would be any resales be it on the MLS or by owner. I'm a very confident that you can I guesstimate the standing inventory that developers are long and haven't sold yet.

Are you doing this for fun or are you trying to understand the downtown market for some other purpose?

SB said...

I want to do a write-up on downtown condos for my website.

Let me ask you again, as I think I am not making myself clear.

How many condos are currently for sale, and under construction, by the builder?

I am not interested in resale condos, because I already have the off the MLS. I am tracking the resale inventory, resale pending, and resale sold.

I do not have the new condos, the ones that the builder is selling direct to the public. I guess I could call CCDC for that info. I just thought you might have it already.

Using only MLS data, we have 17 months supply.

But if we add all the builder inventory, we could have a 3 or 5 yr supply. What do you think?

In my story, I want to ask the question: If everyone wants to live here, why aren't they coming?

We have 600 resale condos downtown, plus probably 2000 new ones, and why aren't they being sold? I thought everyone wants to live here? When are they coming? Why don't they buy?

SB said...

Another question - I've been looking at various downtown condo websites for photos of condos, but can't find any photos. The other day someone told me that one realtor bought 55 condo domain names, so I think what happened is that the sites are owned by some realtor and not by the builder.

In April, I took a visiting friend to see several condos, and we were floored by the beauty and lavishness of dowtown condos! I was looking for some websites with pictures. Can you recommend any?