Monday, September 04, 2006

Downtown Condo at Discovery #503

Discovery is a 199 unit high rise condominium in the Cortez Hill neighborhood downtown.

On the one hand this entry is "only" a $40,000 loss however this unit happens to be a very good comparable to the Cortez Blu unit featured in this entry.

Both units have only one parking spot, don't have a view (if anything the Cortez Blu unit has a slight view). Discovery does have nice amenities so let's be fair and give it a 10% price advantage.

As noted in the prior entry the Cortez Blu unit was offered at $350 a square foot. At $385 per square foot this Discovery unit is worth $473,500! Clearly a substantial discount to the unit's current list price.

Type: Listed on MLS(#066061752)

Resale Price: $595,000
Cost: $600,000

Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $40,700
Loss%: 6.78%

Purchase Date: 08/30/2004
Holding Period: 25 months and counting...

Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1230

Purchase Details:view


Sven said...

Hey guys, it looks like we finally have a way to put our money where our collective mouths are. Hedgestreet recently started offering housing futures. (regional too, so you can just buy San Diego contracts) This lets you gamble on housing price movement up or down. I got some details on my blog about how it works, and you can also get a complete description with all kinds of information on their website. ( (obviously use caution on a thing like this and make sure you understand exactly what you are doing. You could lose money)

Mr. Brightside said...

Hi sven,

I'm interested in if you find their site useful. Keep us updated on how it goes. I've been on their email list for awhile but haven't done anything.

Sven said...

Yeah, the big problem is that people have already priced soo much deflation in the real estate market that its almost not worth it. The last price I saw for the 615k was a 10% chance. That means you would only make 11.1% if you are right and prices don't go up $2,000 between August and November. Conversely, you could make a killing if you bet that prices will go up 2k and are right. (usually the market isn't wrong, so chances are that real estate median price will be down next report)

Anonymous said...

Here is another one in San Marcos,

MLS 066072427
price $499,000

last comp sale was,

Price $559,000
Parcel 220 443 23 00
Date 06-09-2005

Mr. Brightside said...

The addresses don't match although square footage does. I'm getting 416 and 412 Camino Hermoso. It's possible that one source is wrong, I'd like to post this but I want to be as accurate as possible. Any idea if this is the same property?

Anonymous said...

I could not find the exact price
from ARCC. I think it was purchased
in 2003. But comps clearly shows
a depreciation in price from
2005/2004 levels. Is there another
source on Internet for finding
purchase prices before 2004 ?

Anyway this complex in San Marcos is full of examples in price decline in SM area. Some of these
houses have been in market for more than a year and I've see them expired and re-listed over and over again.

Mr. Brightside said...

anon 3:44

The last time this specific property changed hands was on 11/26/2003 for $391,380.

I have access to a price database that goes back several years. My understanding is that this will be available soon for everyone to use.

I agree that this is a good comp. Perhaps I'll start doing blog entries that are comp oriented. It's somewhat more qualitative than the specific properties that are listed/sold for less than they last changed hands but still a valuable tool to understanding the changing market.

Thanks for the input